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Gold—EUR/USD—Volatility 75—US 500—Oil—

Lesson 1 of 20 · 10 min

Trend Following

Step 1

What it is

A trend is a series of swings in one direction: higher highs and higher lows going up, lower highs and lower lows going down. Trend following means trading in that direction instead of guessing where it ends.

This is the idea behind many rule-based systems. You accept being late to the move and wrong fairly often, in return for the chance that a winner runs well past your risk.

Traders use it because it gives a plain answer to which way to look. It avoids the constant temptation to call a top or a bottom.

Step 2

See it on a chart

Two swings up, a higher low, and a pullback on lighter volume.

3996.54006.64016.84027.04037.1XAU/USD · 15m · illustrativeTick volume12345

Illustrative chart with made-up prices and tick volume, built for teaching. It is not real market data and not a trade idea.

Step 3

The exact rules

What must be true before entry

  • At least two swings in one direction.
  • Price pulling back without breaking the last swing.
  • Lighter volume on the pullback than on the move before it.

What volume should show

Volume should tend to rise on the swings with the trend and fade on the pullbacks. If the swings with the trend get quieter and quieter, treat that as a warning.

Where to enter

Near the newest higher low or lower high, after price has started to turn.

Where the hard stop goes

A hard stop just past that higher low or lower high.

Where the target goes

Aim for a clear objective that offers at least 3:1. If the nearest realistic objective gives you less, there is no trade.

What invalidates the idea

  • Price closes past the last higher low or lower high.
  • Pullbacks start to grow larger than the swings.

When not to take it

  • The market is moving sideways.
  • The trend is already far from its last pullback.
  • Major news is due soon, or you would be trading outside your planned hours.
  • You have just taken a loss and feel the need to win it back.

Step 4

Your turn: plan the trade

Price is falling in lower highs and lower lows, and has just pulled back up. Mark your plan.

This setup is a short. Look at the candles and the volume. Choose a line below, then tap the chart to place it. You can also drag its label or type a price.

1.14411.14571.14731.14891.1505EUR/USD · 15m · illustrativeTick volume

Illustrative chart with made-up prices and tick volume, built for teaching. It is not real market data and not a trade idea.

Step 5

The trap: taking profit too early

After a few small wins, a trader will often cut a winner short to feel safe, then let a loser run out of hope. That is the reverse of what trend following needs. Decide your exit before you enter, and let the plan do its job.

Read why journaling matters

Step 6

Write it down

Optional. Only you can see this.

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